Brokerages have maintained their ratings and target prices on FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent company of Nykaa, after the fashion and beauty online retailer posted in-line numbers during the October-December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). They have, however, cut earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) estimates after weak demand weighed across line items in Q3. "While revenue growth was healthy at 22 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), gross margins declined 90 basis points (bps), weighed by higher discounting in own brands and lower ad income.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
SBI Q3FY24 result review: A higher-than-factored weakness in the October-to-December quarter (Q3) results of State Bank of India (SBI), for financial year 2023-24 (FY24), has prompted brokerages to cut earnings estimates for the ongoing financial year. They, however, have maintained 'Buy' ratings on the stock, revising target price upwards in some cases, owing to the stock's recent underperformance relative to its peers.
Most analysts have downgraded the stock of SBI Cards and Payments (SBI Card) as the credit card issuer posted weak results during the December quarter (Q3) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The sub-par show, analysts said, was for the eighth straight quarter. With this, they have slashed their earnings estimates by as much as 20 per cent over FY24-26 amid near-term pressure points in the company's growth outlook.
The S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have managed to stay afloat in a volatile January that saw the frontline indices hit their respective 52-week high levels and then slip. While the S&P BSE Sensex has lost over 2 per cent thus far in January, the S&P BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices have gained nearly 2.5 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively during this period.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
CLSA has downgraded select real estate stocks and expects most counters from this sector to consolidate in the months ahead after the sharp run seen in them in the last few months. Most positive factors in terms of a pick-up in housing demand and office space absorption, it said, are already priced in. "We expect housing industry demand to grow around 12 per cent in 2024 and for large developers to outpace industry to grow at 15 - 20 per cent.
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
Despite a largely stable December quarter, investors booked profit in shares of IndusInd Bank (IIB) as an increase in slippages took them by surprise. Analysts, on their part, believe investors may, now, wait for actual delivery on slippage decline, potentially limiting near-term upside. "The management has indicated that corporate slippages (from legacy stressed book) have ended and inch up in consumer finance slippages was more one-off, and should meaningfully improve Q4FY24 onwards.
Growing concerns over slower-than-expected margin recovery, amid weak deposit growth have caught HDFC Bank's investors off guard. HDFC Bank's stock on Wednesday plunged nearly 9 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,527 on the BSE after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24). The shares of India's biggest private lender closed at Rs 1,536.9, down 8.46 per cent.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
'From a risk-return perspective, large-cap funds may generate lower-than-historical average returns in 2024, whereas mid-, and small-cap funds hardly have any upside left.'
Shares of Bajaj Finance sprinted 4.7 per cent to Rs 7,732 per share on the BSE in Thursday's (January 4) intra-day trade as the non-bank finance company's (NBFC's) December quarter business update reflected minimal impact of the Reserve Bank of India's ban on two of its lending products. The shares, eventually, ended 4.4 per cent higher at Rs 7,710 per share as against 0.69 per cent gain in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex. The NBFC's asset under management (AUM) topped the Rs 3-trillion-mark at the end of December 2023, swelling by roughly Rs 20,700 crore (35 per cent year-on-year) to hit Rs 3.11 trillion-mark.
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
A key reason for the rise in crypto currencies in 2023 is the possibility of the world's first Bitcoin ETF over the next few months.
'It will dictate the flow of funds into the index. We will maintain caution on mid/smallcaps.'
Nearly 90 per cent of the stocks comprising the National Stock Exchange Nifty 500 Index and 49 of the 50 stocks that make up the Nifty50 are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs). The 200-DMA is considered one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders. They believe that stocks and indices trading above this key level exhibit strength and are likely to rally, while those trading below this level are viewed as bearish, with the stock/index expected to see a selloff.
In a recent note, the global brokerage firm said India now commands a weight of 19 per cent in the above-mentioned portfolio as compared to 18.2 per cent in September 2023. India, it said, is a large liquid market and remains a counter-weight to North Asia if a slowdown in the West occurs and China's recovery disappoints.
The S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 have hit record highs amid the poll outcome-triggered bull frenzy at the bourses. Most analysts feel that the indices are on course to rise further over the next few months - till the general elections - albeit amid intermittent corrections - largely triggered by global developments. Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) win in the three state elections of Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, analysts at Jefferies believe, reinforces the consensus expectations of a Modi win 2024 national elections with a greater likelihood of over 300 seats for the BJP.
The general elections in April/May 2024 are expected to add volatility to the Indian markets, keeping investors on their toes.
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